As typically happens during a recession, we do not find out about it until we are well into it…although I contend that you “feel” a recession before you “see” it. Already this downturn is the longest since WW2 and is staged to continue for a much longer period.
In my view, this news is the beginning of the turn. As soon as the govt finds a way to inject capital into the consumer’s pocket, we are set to move forward again. Along the way, we will be experiencing a painful rightsizing of our economy, our corporations, even our non-profit organizations and our households. After going through this, my guess is that we will be reset and ready for a more modest economy going forward. Perhaps the greatest loss is the grief we will experience for the days lost being shortsided in the midst of one of the greatest periods of expansion we have ever seen. When we should have been shoring up our infrastructure and balance sheets, we instead went overboard with spending as a nation. This painful correction might be the best thing in the end, but it will no doubt be painful for everyone.